New York: Foundation Press. Given large enough samples sizes, the null hypothesis finding no incremental validity can almost always be rejected Cohen, Recidivism rates for discordant groups were intermediate between the two adjacent risk categories. As such, it served both to change the manner by which people conducted risk assessments and as the stepping stone for the development of second-generation actuarial instrumentation, though it is still being used because of its unique contribution to risk assessment technology.
Validity, reliability, and baloney.
Vrieze and Grovefor example, have proposed creating a superscale, with existing scales treated as items in the superscale. Those sex offenders deemed high risk may be subject to substantial restrictions, such as post-sentence detention, indeterminate sentences, and long-term community supervision.
Bonta, J. Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada. We would like to thank Marnie Rice, Grant Harris, and Jean Proulx for access to their original data sets and Don Grubin and James Bonta for comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. Conceptually, if an instrument provides new information to better understand an offender's risk, it provides incremental information.
Figure 4. Follow-up information was based on RCMP records as well as mental health records i. Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk.
British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, 62, Cella, D. Violent recidivism: Assessing predictive validity. Although the use of mechanical and actuarial risk tools has clear strengths e. Equally valid measures can give divergent results. Bonta, J.
The relationship between Static scores and sexual recidivism is presented in Figure 3. Incremental validity was examined using Cox regression Allison,
The reason for the lack of differences in predictive accuracy between the revised versions of Static and Static in the current study despite using the same samples as Hanson et al. Analyses conducted separately for each comparison, with each sample entered as strata and both risk instruments entered in Step 1.
Cohen, J. Psychological Assessment, 17 , Violent offenders: Appraising and managing risk 2nd Ed.